Sunday, June 23, 2013

Trade Deadline Update: Padres Interested In Arrieta (Again)

Jake Arrieta
Josh Byrnes really likes Jake Arrieta. This is the second time in the last year that Byrnes has been in talks with the Orioles about Arrieta, to go as far as offer the Orioles a deal for Chase Headley revolving around Arrieta and two prospects at the trade deadline last year, which was swiftly rejected. The Orioles are now kicking themselves over that deal. Headley finished last year with 31 home runs and a .286 average, and Arrieta finished to a 3-9 record with a 6.20 ERA. Rumors have been swirling that several teams are interested in pitcher Edinson Volquez, who was "effectively-wild" last night, striking out 7 and taking a no hit bid into the 6th inning, but was tagged with the loss, 5 runs (2 earned), and 7 walks. I think of all the scouts that were at the ballpark, at least one liked that stuff.

Anthony Bass
It has also been made aware that the Orioles scout at the ballpark was also looking at long reliever Anthony Bass. He suggested a possible swap of Arrieta and Bass, or a deal of Arrieta and more for Volquez. Edinson Volquez has had a pretty miserable season, posting a 5-6 record with a 5.67 ERA. The interesting part of Volquez's year, is that his walk rate is actually down from his career trends, his strikeout rate is also down, and his hit rates are up. His FIP is under his career rate, despite his ERA being over, and his BABIP is up, suggesting that he is having a great season with terrible luck. One would think when a player gives up less home runs and walks, he would give up less runs. I am thinking bad luck when digging deeper.

Edinson Volquez
I personally can see Edinson Volquez being dealt if the Padres are still in contention. Volquez has been the second worst pitcher on the Padres staff, and at first, I was surprised at the interest in him. It took a look into his peripherals to understand that he was just unlucky, and he could provide major value if he is "on" down the stretch. I was actually down on this team this year, which was a first for me. I think that we do end up keeping this incredible run that has put us in 2nd place and 2.5 games out of first and we reach the deadline as contenders. Here are my proposed deals.

Padres trade RHP Edinson Volquez to Orioles for RHP Jake Arrieta and a prospect.
Padres trade 1B/OF Jesus Guzman to the Royals for a prospect or two.
Yankees trade RHP Phil Hughes to Padres in exchange for prospects.
Indians trade RHP Chris Perez and RHP Ubaldo Jimenez in exchange for prospects.
Marlins trade OF Giancarlo Stanton to Padres in exchange for prospects.*

If I was San Diego's GM, these are the moves I would make. I think the first three are really interesting, and I will break down a proposed Hughes swap soon. I think the 4th trade is a little bit of a stretch, but it is possible that San Diego acquired Jimenez, and obviously the 5th deal is really not going to happen, but I can get my hopes up. I think San Diego could pay a price around Max Fried and Rymer Liriano plus more to get Stanton, but any move seems like it will wait for the offseason.

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