If I Were GM: November 2012

Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Royals Sign Jeremy Guthrie

Jeremy Guthrie

The Royals have agreed to sign RHP Jeremy Guthrie to a 3-year, 25 million dollar contract. This is the Royals second move to acquire pitching, as the first was the acquisition of Ervin Santana. The deal has a strange structure, which could be advantageous. In the first season, the deal is on a discount, allowing room for an extra free agent. The second season will be when the Royals get a big TV deal and have the extra money to pay for the 11 million dollar deal.

Year:	Salary:
2013	$5,000,000
2014	$11,000,000
2012	$9,000,000

In my modest opinion, I don't think that this deal was a good one for Kansas City, though it will be worth it this season since the contract will be backloaded. I am not a fan of Jeremy Guthrie, though I can see why the Royals would want to invest in the righty, as he performed well after being acquired for LHP Jonathan Sanchez from the Rockies. He has a career record of 55-77 and a 4.28 ERA in pitchers parks. He has had an interesting career, and has a reputation as an "innings eater". The 33-year old has pitched in hitter's parks his entire career, and could have room for improvement in a more fair park. Chances are the Royals offered a large sum of money to a back-end of the rotation starter, Gil Meche anyone?

Year	Age	Tm	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	R	ER	HR	BB	SO
2009	30	BAL	10	17	5.04	33	33	200.0	224	120	112	35	60	110
2010	31	BAL	11	14	3.83	32	32	209.1	193	93	89	25	50	119
2011	32	BAL	9	17	4.33	34	32	208.0	213	113	100	26	66	130
2012	33	TOT	8	12	4.76	33	29	181.2	206	109	96	30	50	101
2012	33	COL	3	9	6.35	19	15	90.2	122	72	64	21	31	45
2012	33	KCR	5	3	3.16	14	14	91.0	84	37	32	9	19	56
9 Yrs			55	77	4.28	210	183	1202.0	1219	620	571	168	354	727

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Padres Exercise Black's Options

Bud Black

The Padres have announced that they have exercised manager Bud Black's 2014 and 2015 club options. The 55-year old lefty owned a 121-116 record with a 3.84 ERA as a player, and owns a 464-509 record with San Diego as the manager. Remember, some of those season involved Luis Rodriguez as the starting SS. He has led this team since Bruce Bochy managed the club, and has seen all these players grow more than anybody else. Since 2007 we have had 3 different owners and 3 different GM's, a little stability is nice once in a while. Every GM in San Diego since Buddy came in has given him the stamp of approval. Josh Byrnes, the current GM, said this in a press release:

“Buddy has a keen insight into team dynamics and creates a great environment for the players and coaching staff,” said Byrnes. “He is a gifted leader with a terrific mind for the game and a genuine interest and curiosity related to all areas of our organization.”

I've got to say, this coaching staff could be one of the best in baseball, Balsley and Plantier have been essential to the success and development of these young players. The minor league coaching staff took a hit, as San Antonio (AA) manager John Gibbons was hired by Toronto.

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Blue Jays & Marlins Blockbuster: Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson to the Jays

Jose Reyes

Last night, the Blue Jays and Marlins pulled off a major trade last night, agreeing to make this deal:

Marlins Acquire:

SS Yunel Escobar

SS Adeiny Hechavarria

RHP Henderson Alvarez

C Jeff Mathis

LHP Justin Nicolino

RHP Anthony DeSclafani

OF Jake Marisnick

Blue Jays Acquire:

OF Emilio Bonifacio

LHP Mark Buehrle

SS Jose Reyes

C John Buck

RHP Josh Johnson

$4MM

The Blue Jays just turned themselves into contenders for the AL East, boosted the moral of their fans, and improved their ball club tremendously. Kudos to general manager Alex Anthopolous for pulling off such a huge deal. This works the opposite way with the Marlins. They shattered their relationship with their already mistrusting fan base, caused many to question owner Jeff Loria, and even tick off their best player. Rumor has it they are shopping the last two MLB players besides Giancarlo Stanton, Ricky Nolasco and Logan Morrison. Here is a tweet from Mr. Stanton!

Giancarlo Stanton tweet

I don't think Mr. Stanton will be signing a long term deal with the Marlins any time soon! I could see another trade in the Marlins future involving Mr. Stanton. At least they have a cool fish tank?

I am not going to sit here and predict Stanton's future, I am here to analyze the trade.

I have to compare this deal to the Dodgers-Red Sox trade this August, and it is eerily similar, though the Dodgers took on over 150 million dollars more than the Blue Jays tacked on. Let's say this is the big move for the Blue Jays this offseason, look at this team:

C J.P. Arencibia

1B Adam Lind

2B Macier Izturis

SS Jose Reyes

3B Brett Lawrie

OF Jose Bautista

OF Emilio Bonifacio

OF Colby Rasmus

DH rotation

SP Josh Johnson

SP Mark Buehrle

SP Ricky Romero

SP Brandon Morrow

SP Kyle Drabek

Jose Reyes should be an excellent addition to a line up, and it means there will be a lot more RBI's for Bautista. Johnson and Buehrle take this rotation, and turn it into a formidable force. Bonifacio is an excellent piece, but in my opinion should be playing second baseman and Anthony Gose would be in the outfield. Buck is a solid back-up catcher/DH, but was just a salary dump. The former Marlins catcher will be replaced by C Jeff Mathis (oof!). With Alex Anthropolous having an obsession with relievers, this team looks like a World Series contender. Do not forget that they still have a very deep minor league system! This deal looks like highway robbery looking in, but it works well in both ways. It would have been mutually beneficial if the Marlins hadn't tricked the taxpayers into buying him a new stadium, sounds a little like the 1998 Padres! I feel sympathy for Marlins fans, or the few that they have left, this is a bad move for Jeff Loria, the Marlins owner. Remember, Mr. Loria has two WS titles in the last 15 years, but he also hasn't won the division. They literally erased their entire offseason, as well as Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson, the faces of the franchise. They received Hechavarria to be their replacement for Reyes, Alvarez to fill the slot of Johnson, Yunel Escobar, another trade chip; and two very good prospects in Nicolino and Marisnick. Don't forget about DeSclafani. The Marlins do have quite a good young rotation as well, featuring RHP Jacob Turner as well. This team has a bright future, if they can get another owner!

Here is an analysis of the prospects:

OF, Jake Marisnick

Jake Marisnick was considered one Toronto's best prospects coming into the season, and he did disappoint, hitting under .250 and just 8 home runs through A and AA. He stole 24 SB and was caught 9 times. The power is supposed to develop, but I don't think it will, I am not very happy with Marisnick, but he still is 21. Consider this, he has more HBP than HR in the minors. He looks like he regressed quite a bit.

RHP, Anthony DeSclafani

The former 6th rounder performed very well for the A Lansing Lugnuts, starting 21 games and striking out 92. He went 11-3 and posted a 3.37 ERA. I haven't seen much about him but the lack of k's scare me off. He looks like an interesting prospect and a solid throw in. Don't expect much and he could surprise you.

RHP, Justin Nicolino

This is the hidden gem of the deal, I have heard a lot of good things about the young lefty. The 6'3" 20-year old over two seasons have done very well. He has put up exceptional numbers, going 16-6 with a 2.09 ERA. In 185.1 innings he struck out 192 guys. He looks like he could have ace potential, and could be better than any player in this trade.

The Jays acquired some MLB talent for some younger cheaper talent. With the Marlins savings and the young players they received, this deal is actually good for both sides! I know it is crazy, but if you don't think about the terrible PR, it makes a lot of sense. Nicolino has a chance to be a number one starter. The Marlins did acquire the worst player in baseball, but oh well! (Jeff Mathis).

This isn't nearly as bad as it looks from the Marlins view, but the Blue Jays improved immensely. This is actually a true "win-win" which just took some bad publicity. If the Marlins don't lose too many fans, this isn't a bad deal!

Justin Nicolino:

Year	Age	Lev	Aff	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	BB	SO
2011	19	A--A	TOR	6	2	1.33	15	12	61.0	13	73
2011	19	A-	TOR	5	1	1.03	12	9	52.1	11	64
2011	19	A	TOR	1	1	3.12	3	3	8.2	2	9
2012	20	A	TOR	10	4	2.46	28	22	124.1	21	119
2 Seasons				16	6	2.09	43	34	185.1	34	192

Jake Marisnick:

Year	Age	Lev	Aff	G	PA	AB	H	2B	3B	HR	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP
2011	20	A	TOR	118	523	462	148	27	6	14	37	8	43	91	.320	.392
2012	21	A+-AA	TOR	120	553	489	122	29	10	8	24	9	37	100	.249	.321
2012	21	A+	TOR	65	306	266	70	18	7	6	10	5	26	55	.263	.349
2012	21	AA	TOR	55	247	223	52	11	3	2	14	4	11	45	.233	.286

Anthony DeSclafani:

Year	Age	Lev	Aff	W	L	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	HR	BB	SO
2012	22	A	TOR	11	3	3.37	28	21	123.0	145	3	25	92
1 Season				11	3	3.37	28	21	123.0	145	3	25	92

Jeff Mathis

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	H	2B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP
2011	28	LAA	93	281	247	43	12	3	22	1	2	15	75	.174	.225
2012	29	TOR	71	227	211	46	13	8	27	1	0	9	68	.218	.249
8 Yrs			497	1587	1412	279	61	34	166	9	8	104	429	.198	.256

Henderson Alvarez

Year	Age	Tm	W	L	ERA	GS	IP	HR	BB	SO
2011	21	TOR	1	3	3.53	10	63.2	8	8	40
2012	22	TOR	9	14	4.85	31	187.1	29	54	79
2 Yrs			10	17	4.52	41	251.0	37	62	119

Adeiny Hechavarria

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	2B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP
2012	23	TOR	41	137	126	8	2	15	4	32	.254	.280
1 Yr			41	137	126	8	2	15	4	32	.254	.280
162 Game Avg.			162	541	498	32	8	59	16	126	.254	.280

Yunel Escobar

Year	Age	Tm	G	PA	AB	2B	HR	RBI	SB	CS	BB	SO	BA	OBP
2010	27	TOT	135	567	497	19	4	35	6	2	56	57	.256	.337
2010	27	ATL	75	301	261	12	0	19	5	1	37	31	.238	.334
2010	27	TOR	60	266	236	7	4	16	1	1	19	26	.275	.340
2011	28	TOR	133	590	513	24	11	48	3	3	61	70	.290	.369
2012	29	TOR	145	608	558	22	9	51	5	1	35	70	.253	.300
6 Yrs			784	3311	2929	140	53	298	26	18	295	365	.282	.353
162 Game Avg.			162	684	605	29	11	62	5	4	61	75	.282	.353