Wednesday, November 21, 2012

Royals Sign Jeremy Guthrie

Jeremy Guthrie
The Royals have agreed to sign RHP Jeremy Guthrie to a 3-year, 25 million dollar contract. This is the Royals second move to acquire pitching, as the first was the acquisition of Ervin Santana. The deal has a strange structure, which could be advantageous. In the first season, the deal is on a discount, allowing room for an extra free agent. The second season will be when the Royals get a big TV deal and have the extra money to pay for the 11 million dollar deal.



Year:Salary:
2013
$5,000,000
2014
$11,000,000
2012
$9,000,000

In my modest opinion, I don't think that this deal was a good one for Kansas City, though it will be worth it this season since the contract will be backloaded. I am not a fan of Jeremy Guthrie, though I can see why the Royals would want to invest in the righty, as he performed well after being acquired for LHP Jonathan Sanchez from the Rockies. He has a career record of 55-77 and a 4.28 ERA in pitchers parks. He has had an interesting career, and has a reputation as an "innings eater". The 33-year old has pitched in hitter's parks his entire career, and could have room for improvement in a more fair park. Chances are the Royals offered a large sum of money to a back-end of the rotation starter, Gil Meche anyone?


Year Age Tm W L ERA G GS IP H R ER HR BB SO
2009 30 BAL 10 17 5.04 33 33 200.0 224 120 112 35 60 110
2010 31 BAL 11 14 3.83 32 32 209.1 193 93 89 25 50 119
2011 32 BAL 9 17 4.33 34 32 208.0 213 113 100 26 66 130
2012 33 TOT 8 12 4.76 33 29 181.2 206 109 96 30 50 101
2012 33 COL 3 9 6.35 19 15 90.2 122 72 64 21 31 45
2012 33 KCR 5 3 3.16 14 14 91.0 84 37 32 9 19 56
9 Yrs 55 77 4.28 210 183 1202.0 1219 620 571 168 354 727

Tuesday, November 20, 2012

Padres Exercise Black's Options

Bud Black
The Padres have announced that they have exercised manager Bud Black's 2014 and 2015 club options. The 55-year old lefty owned a 121-116 record with a 3.84 ERA as a player, and owns a 464-509 record with San Diego as the manager. Remember, some of those season involved Luis Rodriguez as the starting SS. He has led this team since Bruce Bochy managed the club, and has seen all these players grow more than anybody else. Since 2007 we have had 3 different owners and 3 different GM's, a little stability is nice once in a while. Every GM in San Diego since Buddy came in has given him the stamp of approval. Josh Byrnes, the current GM, said this in a press release:

“Buddy has a keen insight into team dynamics and creates a great environment for the players and coaching staff,” said Byrnes.  “He is a gifted leader with a terrific mind for the game and a genuine interest and curiosity related to all areas of our organization.”


I've got to say, this coaching staff could be one of the best in baseball, Balsley and Plantier have been essential to the success and development of these young players. The minor league coaching staff took a hit, as San Antonio (AA) manager John Gibbons was hired by Toronto.

Thursday, November 15, 2012

Blue Jays & Marlins Blockbuster: Jose Reyes, Mark Buehrle, Josh Johnson to the Jays

Jose Reyes
Last night, the Blue Jays and Marlins pulled off a major trade last night, agreeing to make this deal:

Marlins Acquire:
SS Yunel Escobar
SS Adeiny Hechavarria
RHP Henderson Alvarez
C Jeff Mathis
LHP Justin Nicolino
RHP Anthony DeSclafani
OF Jake Marisnick

Blue Jays Acquire:
OF Emilio Bonifacio
LHP Mark Buehrle
SS Jose Reyes
C John Buck
RHP Josh Johnson
$4MM



The Blue Jays just turned themselves into contenders for the AL East, boosted the moral of their fans, and improved their ball club tremendously. Kudos to general manager Alex Anthopolous for pulling off such a huge deal. This works the opposite way with the Marlins. They shattered their relationship with their already mistrusting fan base, caused many to question owner Jeff Loria, and even tick off their best player. Rumor has it they are shopping the last two MLB players besides Giancarlo Stanton, Ricky Nolasco and Logan Morrison. Here is a tweet from Mr. Stanton!

Giancarlo Stanton tweet
I don't think Mr. Stanton will be signing a long term deal with the Marlins any time soon! I could see another trade in the Marlins future involving Mr. Stanton. At least they have a cool fish tank?

I am not going to sit here and predict Stanton's future, I am here to analyze the trade.

I have to compare this deal to the Dodgers-Red Sox trade this August, and it is eerily similar, though the Dodgers took on over 150 million dollars more than the Blue Jays tacked on. Let's say this is the big move for the Blue Jays this offseason, look at this team:

C J.P. Arencibia
1B Adam Lind
2B Macier Izturis
SS Jose Reyes
3B Brett Lawrie
OF Jose Bautista
OF Emilio Bonifacio
OF Colby Rasmus
DH rotation

SP Josh Johnson
SP Mark Buehrle
SP Ricky Romero
SP Brandon Morrow
SP Kyle Drabek

Jose Reyes should be an excellent addition to a line up, and it means there will be a lot more RBI's for Bautista. Johnson and Buehrle take this rotation, and turn it into a formidable force. Bonifacio is an excellent piece, but in my opinion should be playing second baseman and Anthony Gose would be in the outfield. Buck is a solid back-up catcher/DH, but was just a salary dump. The former Marlins catcher will be replaced by C Jeff Mathis (oof!). With Alex Anthropolous having an obsession with relievers, this team looks like a World Series contender. Do not forget that they still have a very deep minor league system! This deal looks like highway robbery looking in, but it works well in both ways. It would have been mutually beneficial if the Marlins hadn't tricked the taxpayers into buying him a new stadium, sounds a little like the 1998 Padres! I feel sympathy for Marlins fans, or the few that they have left, this is a bad move for Jeff Loria, the Marlins owner. Remember, Mr. Loria has two WS titles in the last 15 years, but he also hasn't won the division. They literally erased their entire offseason, as well as Hanley Ramirez and Josh Johnson, the faces of the franchise. They received Hechavarria to be their replacement for Reyes, Alvarez to fill the slot of Johnson, Yunel Escobar, another trade chip; and two very good prospects in Nicolino and Marisnick. Don't forget about DeSclafani. The Marlins do have quite a good young rotation as well, featuring RHP Jacob Turner as well. This team has a bright future, if they can get another owner!

Here is an analysis of the prospects:

OF, Jake Marisnick
Jake Marisnick was considered one Toronto's best prospects coming into the season, and he did disappoint, hitting under .250 and just 8 home runs through A and AA. He stole 24 SB and was caught 9 times. The power is supposed to develop, but I don't think it will, I am not very happy with Marisnick, but he still is 21. Consider this, he has more HBP than HR in the minors. He looks like he regressed quite a bit.

RHP, Anthony DeSclafani
The former 6th rounder performed very well for the A Lansing Lugnuts, starting 21 games and striking out 92. He went 11-3 and posted a 3.37 ERA. I haven't seen much about him but the lack of k's scare me off. He looks like an interesting prospect and a solid throw in. Don't expect much and he could surprise you.

RHP, Justin Nicolino
This is the hidden gem of the deal, I have heard a lot of good things about the young lefty. The 6'3" 20-year old over two seasons have done very well. He has put up exceptional numbers, going 16-6 with a 2.09 ERA. In 185.1 innings he struck out 192 guys. He looks like he could have ace potential, and could be better than any player in this trade

The Jays acquired some MLB talent for some younger cheaper talent. With the Marlins savings and the young players they received, this deal is actually good for both sides! I know it is crazy, but if you don't think about the terrible PR, it makes a lot of sense. Nicolino has a chance to be a number one starter. The Marlins did acquire the worst player in baseball, but oh well! (Jeff Mathis).

This isn't nearly as bad as it looks from the Marlins view, but the Blue Jays improved immensely. This is actually a true "win-win" which just took some bad publicity. If the Marlins don't lose too many fans, this isn't a bad deal!

Justin Nicolino:
YearAgeLevAffWLERAGGSIPBBSO
201119A--ATOR621.33151261.01373
201119A-TOR511.0312952.11164
201119ATOR113.12338.229
201220ATOR1042.462822124.121119
2 Seasons1662.094334185.134192


Jake Marisnick:
YearAgeLevAffGPAABH2B3BHRSBCSBBSOBAOBP
201120ATOR118523462148276143784391.320.392
201221A+-AATOR1205534891222910824937100.249.321
201221A+TOR653062667018761052655.263.349
201221AATOR552472235211321441145.233.286

Anthony DeSclafani:
YearAgeLevAffWLERAGGSIPHHRBBSO
201222ATOR1133.372821123.014532592
1 Season1133.372821123.014532592

Jeff Mathis
Year Age Tm G PA AB H 2B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP
2011 28 LAA 93 281 247 43 12 3 22 1 2 15 75 .174 .225
2012 29 TOR 71 227 211 46 13 8 27 1 0 9 68 .218 .249
8 Yrs 497 1587 1412 279 61 34 166 9 8 104 429 .198 .256

Henderson Alvarez
Year Age Tm W L ERA GS IP HR BB SO
2011 21 TOR 1 3 3.53 10 63.2 8 8 40
2012 22 TOR 9 14 4.85 31 187.1 29 54 79
2 Yrs 10 17 4.52 41 251.0 37 62 119

Adeiny Hechavarria
Year Age Tm G PA AB 2B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP
2012 23 TOR 41 137 126 8 2 15 0 0 4 32 .254 .280
1 Yr 41 137 126 8 2 15 0 0 4 32 .254 .280
162 Game Avg. 162 541 498 32 8 59 0 0 16 126 .254 .280


Yunel Escobar
Year Age Tm G PA AB 2B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP
2010 27 TOT 135 567 497 19 4 35 6 2 56 57 .256 .337
2010 27 ATL 75 301 261 12 0 19 5 1 37 31 .238 .334
2010 27 TOR 60 266 236 7 4 16 1 1 19 26 .275 .340
2011 28 TOR 133 590 513 24 11 48 3 3 61 70 .290 .369
2012 29 TOR 145 608 558 22 9 51 5 1 35 70 .253 .300
6 Yrs 784 3311 2929 140 53 298 26 18 295 365 .282 .353
162 Game Avg. 162 684 605 29 11 62 5 4 61 75 .282 .353


Jose Reyes
Year Age Tm G PA AB 2B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP
2011 28 NYM 126 586 537 31 7 44 39 7 43 41 .337 .384
2012 29 MIA 160 716 642 37 11 57 40 11 63 56 .287 .347
10 Yrs 1210 5556 5095 259 92 480 410 103 396 565 .291 .342
162 Game Avg. 162 744 682 35 12 64 55 14 53 76 .291 .342
NYM (9 yrs) 1050 4840 4453 222 81 423 370 92 333 509 .292 .341
MIA (1 yr) 160 716 642 37 11 57 40 11 63 56 .287 .347


Josh Johnson
Year Age Lg W L ERA G GS IP
2010 26 NL 11 6 2.30 28 28 183.2
2011 27 NL 3 1 1.64 9 9 60.1
2012 28 NL 8 14 3.81 31 31 191.1
8 Yrs 56 37 3.15 154 144 916.2


Emilio Bonifacio
Year Age Tm G PA AB HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP
2007 22 ARI 11 27 23 0 2 0 1 4 3 .217 .333
2008 23 TOT 49 186 169 0 14 7 4 14 46 .243 .296
2008 23 ARI 8 12 12 0 2 1 0 0 5 .167 .167
2008 23 WSN 41 174 157 0 12 6 4 14 41 .248 .305
2009 24 FLA 127 509 461 1 27 21 9 34 95 .252 .303
2010 25 FLA 73 201 180 0 10 12 0 17 42 .261 .320
2011 26 FLA 152 641 565 5 36 40 11 59 129 .296 .360
2012 27 MIA 64 274 244 1 11 30 3 25 52 .258 .330
6 Yrs 476 1838 1642 7 100 110 28 153 367 .267 .329
162 Game Avg. 162 626 559 2 34 37 10 52 125 .267 .329
MIA (4 yrs) 416 1625 1450 7 84 103 23 135 318 .271 .332
ARI (2 yrs) 19 39 35 0 4 1 1 4 8 .200 .282
WSN (1 yr) 41 174 157 0 12 6 4 14 41 .248 .305