Thursday, October 18, 2012

Trade in Review: Jake Peavy (2009)

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TRADE:

White Sox Acquire:
RHP Jake Peavy

Padres Acquire:
LHP Clayton Richard
RHP Dexter Carter
LHP Aaron Poreda
RHP Adam Russell

The original deal, while Peavy was healthy, included top prospect Daniel Hudson over Dexter Carter. Peavy vetoed the deal and go hurt. Kenny Williams reacquired him and Peavy was flattered and accepted the deal. Overall, the deal has turned out to be just fair.

($V)=Money Value based off of WAR (wins above replacement).
Ex: Jake Peavy produced 8.4 WAR which is equal to 42 million dollars in value, and he was payed 48 million over that time, so he was worth -6 million dollars.
N/A=Didn't make majors
White Sox:
Jake Peavy 28-25 3.91 ERA 400 k's 457.2 IP 71 starts 8.4WAR (-6M)

Padres:
Dexter Carter N/A (0M)
Aaron Poreda 0-0 3.86 ERA 0k's 5bb's 0WAR 2.1IP (0M)
Adam Russell 3-1 3.86 ERA 32k's 28IP -0.1IP (-.5M)
Clayton Richard 38-34 3.90 ERA 361 k's 584 IP (+6M)

White Sox total value: -6M
Padres total value: +5.5M


Assessment:
Overall, the deal was a good one, worth 11.5M in value, a number that is still growing, BUT the only reason Jake Peavy did not outproduce Richard was because Mr. Peavy had a rather large contract, I do want you to remember he allowed us to acquire Street and Quentin, so it did help in some ways. Overall it was a decent deal, considering if we didn't have Richard, we would have had ANOTHER 34 replacement level starts this season. We could have had Daniel Hudson if Peavy wasn't so selfish, as he requested he be dealt to an NL East or West team...


Sunday, October 7, 2012

Offseason Preview





Positions of Need:
RF
SP
SP
RP

Potential Targets:

RF:
A dream come true would be Rangers outfielder Josh Hamilton, but he wants far too much money. This offseason things are different, we have money, and we could basically sign any free agents we wanted. Hamilton is an injury prone, 31-year old outfielder hitting in Texas, with a history of major drug and alcohol issues who wants a ton of money. The talent is there, but there are a lot of other factors saying this would be a bad deal. A more realistic, and better overall fit for the team is OF Torii Hunter, who could probably be had on a two year deal worth about 7 or 8 million dollars a season. Cabrera-Gyorko-Headley-Quentin-Hunter would be "some kind of nice!". If he doesn't go back to the Angels or Twins, we could have a perfect fit.

SP(s):
We get two starters, not named Zach Grienke, only because we need two. Some of the main targets include Jake Peavy, Dan Haren, Ervin Santana, Shawn Marcum, Hiroki Kuroda, Edwin Jackson, Ryan Dempster, and Anibal Sanchez. My personal preference would be 2 of Haren, Sanchez, or Peavy, but that would be pretty expensive. I would be very happy with Haren and Sanchez to head the rotation, with Volquez, Luebke, and Richard to round out the rotation. This is where the money will be spent. Peavy, Haren, and Santana have ties to San Diego, especially Peavy.

RP:
Mike Adams and Joakim Soria are two very interesting targets. I could see a monster bullpen if he could sign both. I would hope for Adams, who did get hurt at the end of the season, which is a big concern, but I could still see it. Both former Padres would take up a late inning role with the club, and have a monster pitching staff. I would expect Soria to sign elsewhere, but it is worth a shot. Imagine Street-Soria-Adams-Gregerson-Vincent-Boxberger-Layne. That is a monster.


Hopeful Signings:
OF Torii Hunter
SP Dan Haren
SP Anibal Sanchez or Jake Peavy
RP Mike Adams
RP Joakim Soria

This would total around 25-35 million dollars, plus an arbitration raise to Headley, the payroll would be somewhere around 80-90 million dollars. I think we have enough money for this, but I am not sure how much will be left after arbitration raises. I could see us non-tendering Tim Stauffer to free up a bit of money. I wouldn't be surprised if we ended up getting a cheaper SP than Sanchez, but I truly expect Dan Haren or Jake Peavy. Hunter again may resign with the Twins or Angels, and Soria will be tough to nab, but this is very possible for a Padres team that could be on the brink of years of stardom.


2012 Season Review & Awards

Record: 76-86, 4th Place

This season is very very similar to 2009, where we won 75 games, but we broke out the next season.The early part of the season we were bad. 16-40 bad. I believe we had 17 DL moves in those first 56 games, including Tim Stauffer, Carlos Quentin, Huston Street, Cory Luebke (Tommy John), Joe Wieland (Tommy John), among others. At the trade deadline, Chase Headley was hitting .259 with 12 home runs and 45 RBI. Quentin got back into the line up for the majority of the next two months and Headley finished hitting .285 with 31 HR and the NL RBI crown. At one point in the season our rotation consisted of Clayton Richard as the ace, Eric Stults, Ross Ohlendorf, Kip Wells, and Jason Marquis to round out the rotation. Don't forget about Andrew Werner! This team had its ups and downs, and we have a very promising offseason ahead of us. Here is a review of each position.

SP:
Clayton Richard 14-14 3.99 ERA 218.2IP
Edinson Volquez 11-11 4.14 ERA 182.2IP
Anthony Bass 2-8 4.73 ERA 97IP
Jason Marquis 6-7 4.04 ERA 93.2IP
Eric Stults 8-3 2.92 ERA 92.1IP

The rotation was ravaged by injuries, with the only starter to not miss a start being Clayton Richard. The biggest disappointment was Cory Luebke who got hurt after his fifth start, and will return early next season. The biggest surprise was surely Mr. Eric Stults, who pitched to a 2.92 ERA and went 8-3 in 14 starts and 4 relief appearances. This will be the main area of need this offseason.

RP:
Huston Street 2-1 1.85 ERA 23-24 SV
Luke Gregerson 2-0 2.39 ERA 9-13 SV 24HLD
Dale Thayer 2-2 3.43 ERA 7-10 SV 22HLD
Nick Vincent 2-0 1.71 ERA 0-0 SV 3HLD
Brad Boxberger 0-0 2.60 ERA 0-0 SV 1HLD
Tommy Layne 2-0 3.24 ERA 2-3 SV 7HLD
Joe Thatcher 1-4 3.41 ERA 1-1 SV 14HLD

Huston Street missed nearly two months via injury, forcing Dale Thayer and Luke Gregerson to close out games. Gregerson was the piece in the bullpen that kept it together when Huston Street went down, you could tell his slider improved. Street signed an extension late in the season, and is expected to be back next season. Layne, Vincent, and Boxberger emerged as potential back-end forces, as well as Thayer proving to be a solid middle reliever. I see Joe Thatcher being traded or non-tendered, despite an OK season.

C:
Yasmani Grandal .297 8HR 36RBI .394OBP
John Baker .238 0HR 14RBI .310OBP
Nick Hundley .157 3HR 22RBI .219OBP

Nick Hundley fell apart after signing his extension in the spring, turning into one of the worst hitters in baseball. This was all about his confidence, not his lack of talent. Don't forget about his injury. He should become the back-up catcher for the Yaz man, who led the club in average in his rookie season. He also hit a home run from both sides of the plate in his first start. Within two years, he could be a top 5 catcher. John Baker was a very solid back-up all year.

Corner INF:
Chase Headley .286 31HR 115RBI .376OBP 17SB
Yonder Alonso .273 9HR 62RBI .348OBP 3SB 39 2B
Jesus Guzman .249 9HR 48RBI .319OBP 3SB

Chase Headley broke out, turning in MVP type numbers, but remember, the writers vote, and their opinion is MVP is MVPFAPABMT (Most Valuable Player For A Playoff And Big Market Team), so Headley and fellow candidate Ryan Braun are eliminated from consideration, so congratulations Buster Posey! Headley broke out after the trade deadline, hitting 19HR and winning the RBI crown. If he is traded, then there will be riots at PETCO park. I would be shocked if they traded Mr. Headley after this crazy breakout season. I remember at the deadline, people telling me they though Headley hitting 20HR and .300 was absurd somewhere outside of PETCO. I will analyze his breakout later on. Yonder Alonso led the team in double in his rookie season, hitting 39 of them. I wouldn't be surprised if in the next couple seasons, he had a Headley-esque breakout. Remember, Chase Headley hit 4 home runs last season. Jesus Guzman has been a decent bench bat.

Middle INF:
Everth Cabrera .246 2HR 44SB .324 OBP
Logan Forsythe .273 6HR 8SB .343 OBP
Alexi Amarista .240 5HR 8SB .280OBP

Everth had the most SB in the NL this season, and looks like a mainstay. I remember when we picked him up in the rule-5 draft, and in the second half to the 2009 season he told Adrian Gonzalez "Were playing so well, we could win the 2nd half!" and Adrian Gonzalez laughed. Everth had just come from A ball where they had two "halves" to a year. Logan Forsythe provided a little bit of everything, including clutch power, and some great contact skills. Alexi Amarista, the "little ninja" was acquired for reliever Ernie Frieri, and added a little energy to the club.

OF:
Carlos Quentin .261 16HR 46RBI 0SB .374OBP
Chris Denorfia .293 8HR 36RBI 13SB .345OBP
Will Venable .264 9HR 45RBI 24SB .335OBP
Cameron Maybin .243 8HR 45RBI 26SB .306OBP

Quentin provided some much needed power in the lineup, and was the key to Headley's breakout. He did get hurt quite a bit, but in the games he played in we went 42-44 with him in the lineup, compared to 34-42 without him in the lineup. Denorfia and Venable were a solid platoon in right field, and Cameron Maybin was terrible early on, but raised his average 40 points over the last couple months of the season.

If not for many injuries, this club would have been a force to be reckoned with, lets see how the offseason shakes out.