Saturday, March 3, 2012

Extension! For my Favorite Player!



Extensions
 Today my favorite MLBer signed a long term contract, with San Diego, keeping him here for 5 years at 25 million dollars overall with a 9 million dollar option for a 6th year. I was looking at extensions using mlbtraderumors.com transaction tracker, and was thinking the extensions to young players like Evan Longoria, Jay Bruce, Ricky Romero, and James Shields, who have out performed their extensions, but then the older players like Vernon Wells, Alex Rios, Joe Mauer, and Bud Selig (Yes I went there, the irony is the Padres are the only team not to approve his extension), which are all worse. It got me thinking, the extensions of younger players usually are the great contracts and the older players sign longer, wealthier contracts and end up not living up to expectations, or getting hurt, partailly to age, and this reason, also the cause of players doing very well in contract years, lack of player motivation. Money is the main factor to motivate the average professional athlete. It is the main motivation of the average American to work. It is what sports revolves around. The older players do not need to perform, as they have financial security. Would you give your all if you could make 100 million with or without trying? The young players have a huge payday ahead of them if they can produce. When I first saw the Maybin extension, I immediately thought of Adrian Gonzalez, remember as soon as he was a FA, he recieved a 250 million dollar contract extension, as apposed to the 50 million he would have made is he was horrid during the original contract. Looking semi-recent at extensions of players that are younger, the worst deal was a pact for 4 years 20 million between the Mariners and Franklin Guttierez, who was hurt last year, so it could still benifit the team. Most people believe that the extensions of young players are more risky.

Conclusion:
The best extension for a team with the least risky, unlike the most accepted theory, and benifit the team the most, especially if it buys out as many


Highlight: Older
WAR graph on extended players.
 WAR, or wins above replacement has several factoring statistics, that give a number, like 1.7, over a replacement player. A team full of replacement level players would have about 40 wins. WAR has been valued at 5 million a piece. Chase Headley had a 2.7 WAR last year and and Cameron Maybin produced a 4.7 WAR.







*Pictures in collage are not mine, but I did put it all together. Graph made on fangraphs.com

Friday, March 2, 2012

Top 25: 21-25

Comparisons are if he is put into a full time role with no injuries at the peak of his career.


21.
Jason Hagerty

Scout.com

ETA: Late 2012
Peak Line: .297 23 HR 80RBI Top Defense
Description:
Recently Jason won Brad Ausmus' "Catching Olympics" beating top defensive catcher, Nick Hundley. He is an excellent catcher who ironically was Yasimi Grandal's backup in Florida! He can rake, but he is actually only the third best catching spect in the system. I like his bat, and wouldn't mind packaging him, Tim Stauffer, Chase Headley, and Casey Kelly for a Starlin Castro, and another piece. We could afford to lose the depth, and I personally don't value Kelly very highly, but Theo and Jed Hoyer in Chicago do, and Stauffer doesn't have a slot in the rotation. Castro is currently 23, dirt cheap, and a top 5 SS. Imagine another Templeton.

22.
Kevin Quakenbush
RHP-RP

GoUSFBulls.com

ETA: Late 2012
Peak Line: 0.92 ERA/100 k's/60 saves
Comp: KRod without the issues
Description:
This kid can p-i-t-c-h! The only concern is age at his level. He has a career .64 minor league ERA! Plus 18 saves and 74 k's in 42 innings. He better not be teasing me with these numbers. #closerofthefuture.

23.
Vincent Belnome
2B

baseball reference

ETA: 2013
Peak Line: .275 25 HR 10 SB
Comp: Jesus Guzman
Description:
He is a guy who I have followed since 2009, he was drafted in the 28th round, and was an early signing. He impressed in Eugene with a .297 avg and 10 HR in limited time. I like his bat, and he could at worst be a utility guy. He isn't the best at playing defense. He kind of reminds me of our own Jesus Guzman.

24.
Mike Mikolas
RHP-RP

ETA: 2013
Peak Line: 1.50 ERA/50 Saves
Comp: Brad Brach
Description:
We produce a ton of high quality relievers, Frieri, Spence, Bass, Brach, Hamren are all examples of this, along with trading for some good ones, Gregerson, Hoffman, Bell, Gossage, etc. The 23-year old will be starting in AAA this season, after combining in A and AA for a 1.38 ERA and 69 k's.

25.
Evert Williams
OF

Wikipedia
 ETA: 2014-2015 if ever.
Peak Line: .260/45 SB/15 HR/Great Defense
Comp: Colby Rasmus at best/Nobody at worst
Description:
This is a make-or-break season for Williams, who had a down year, and then missed all of last season, after colliding with Donavan Tate, destroyed SD's 2009 draft, as the top 2 picks were taken out in 5 seconds. He needs desperately to have a very big 21 season.


Cody Decker and Nate Frieman just missed this list.

Other Notes:
  • Cameron Maybin extension talks are ongoing
  • Anthony Bass will get the nod for the home opener
  • March 7th, the Padres will be facing Yu Darvish, the first televised game of the year. Split-Squad too, maybe we will see Yonder or Huston or Carlos Quentin.
  • I will soon do a post on the 2009 draft and how the top 5 rounders are doing and such.