Tuesday, July 31, 2012

Chase Headley stays put

Josh Byrnes stuck to his word and kept Chase Headley in San Diego. The switch hitting third baseman was hitting .268 with 12HR and 12SB and a .369 OBP. This is his break out season, tripling his HR numbers, and playing gold glove defense. The A's, Yankees, Orioles, and Indians were the main suitors. The Orioles balked at Headley for Jake Arrieta, along with two high upside players from A-ball. Nicky Delimico and Eddy Rodriguez. Arrieta is 3-9 with a 6.68 ERA striking out 89 in 101 innings. Thise stats aren't great but he has amazing stuff, personally, if I am the Orioles, I take this offer in a heartbeat. Jedd Gyorko will be called up to play 2B soon. Headley will be dealt in the offseason. By the way... remember this year is very similar to 2009, which led to a 90 win season in 2010. In 2010, we didn't have any money. Add a free agent or two and go after someone for Headley and you got a good team. Most of our rotation has not been healthy, and Stauffer, Kelly, Erlin, Bass rehabbing, and we are heating up, I figure 70-80 wins this season, and next season will be a lot better.

Tomorrow I will have a tutorial on August waivers.

Monday, July 30, 2012

Murphy-Gregerson offer declined

A few days ago the Mets turned down a deal that would have sent RHP Luke Gregerson to NYM for 2B Daniel Murphy. Gregerson has a 3.12 ERA to his name and one of the top sliders in baseball. He was acquired in the Kalil Greene deal with STL. Murphy, is hitting .307 with 30 doubles and 3 home runs. Murphy would have added a very solid bat to the top of a line up that has shown life in the second half. This is signifigant for several reasons, as it shows Josh Byrnes has interest in Daniel Murphy, and more importantley major league players at this up and coming deadline as well as showing that Sandy Alderson won't trade Murphy just to trade him if at all. Speculated moves at the deadline include Headley, Denorfia, and Gregerson being traded.

-The Brewers sent ace Zach Greinke to the Los Angeles Angels of Aneheim in exchange for SS
Jean Segura and RHP John Hellweg.

-The Dodgers turned down a deal that would have sent Ryan Dempster to the LA in exchange for prospect Allen Webster.

-It is now being reported the A's turned down a trade involving SS Hanely Ramirez and nearly 20 milllion dollars in cash.

Sunday, July 29, 2012

Street Signs Extension

RHP Huston Street has officially been taken off the market after agreeing to a 2-year contract extension that includes a club option for 2015. The deal will pay our closer 7 million dollars a year annually. The only Padre all-star is 2-0 with a 0.95 ERA and is 17-17 in save oppurtunities. The deal means three things: Street will be here next season, Brad Brach will
not be the new closer, and Luke Gregerson is likely to be traded.

Street, 28, will be the closer next season with Brad Brach as the 8th inning guy. This is barring injuries and FA signings. RHP Miles Mikolas would be the 7th inning guy, Brad Boxberger, Nick Vincent, Josh Spence, and Erik Hamren will also be members of the bullpen.

One thing that interests me is how Dale Thayer hasn't drawn any interest, he has an ERA around 4.40 only due to a 5-run outing earlier in the year. I am not sure when he is a free agent, but he would be a solid acquisition for a lot of contending teams, including his former team, the Mets. I would not ask for a lot but Dale Thayer for a Jordany Valdespin type trade would make sense, or maybe Gregerson and Thayer for Murpy.

-The White Sox sent former Padre Pedro Hernandez and SS Ed Escobar to the Twins for LHP Francisco Liriano.

-The Orioles have scouts in Lake Elsinore, and we have scouts at their A ball team.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Trade Chips

The Padres are out of it, by far, but there is a chance we pick up some real talent from our trade chips, but Carlos Quentin signed an extension, they have said the aren't dealing Edison Volquez or Clayton Richard, and we have heard good news finally with Tim Stauffer, he will be back soon:

Chase Headley: 3B
Likelihood to move: 90%
Top Suitor: Oakland A's
1-10 Rating of value: 9
Age: 28
Under Control Until: 2015
Stats: 12HR .268 .361 10SB 120 OPS+ GG Defense
The big piece, which is sure to net the biggest return, is Mr. Chase Headley, who was my favorite player when I first started following San Diego, I remember when he was called up.....

LA, Oakland, Pittsburgh, and other teams have shown interest, and the Padres want a TON for the cost controlled gold glover, the Padres have 3B Jedd Gyorko, who is crushing the ball in Tuscon, the former 2nd rounder was drafted by Jed Hoyer, I really liked this pick. This situation will not be like the Alonso-Rizzo situation, as Gyorko is not being rushed to the show.

The 20-year old was the main chip in the Gio Gonzalez trade. He is a high upside arm in A-Ball, who would take a few years to develop. He has struggled in High A-Ball posting a 7.82 ERA, but in A-ball he posted a 2.11 ERA. A career minor league 4.52 k/bb makes me drool as well as 10 k/9.

RHP Jarrod Parker, OAK:
The 23-year old, 6'1 righty has gone 7-4 with a 3.00 ERA for the A's this season, with 76 k's in 99 innings. He was traded from AZ to OAK for RHP Trevor Cahill last offseason. He is a real piece to build around, and I see San Diego asking for Parker and another prospect or two for Headley. Parker would slide into the rotation, as our #1 starter. Parker and Gyorko could be worth more to San Diego this year alone than Headley and Kip Wells. I am hoping we trade Headley for Parker and Michael Choice. Parker touches 96 on the gun.

OF Michael Choice, OAK:
The slugger was hitting .280 with 10HR when he fractured his hand, this severely hurts his value as he is out for the year. He was selected 10th overall in 2009 by the A's, one pick after RHP Karsten Whisten. There were a lot of people saying that San Diego took Choice, and Oakland took Whisten, but it went vice versa, and Whisten didn't sign. We selected Cory Spangenberg with the compensation pick. Whisten could be the top pick in the draft next season. It is unlikely that we snag Choice due to his injury, and we could go after RHP Brad Peacock or OF Michael Taylor as well.

RHP Zach Lee, LAD:
Lee had to choose, football or baseball, and so far he has made the right choice. The 20-year old 6-4 right hander has pitched terribly this season, with a 4.45 ERA in A+ ball, and a 9.85 ERA in AA. Sound familiar? AJ Cole did have similar numbers. Lee has only a 2.5 k/bb ratio, not so dominant. He is the Dodgers best prospect, but I prefer Cole, Choice, Parker, Taillon, Hanson to Lee.


2B Alen Hanson, PIT:
The 19-year old 2B has hit .318 with 15HR in A-Ball. He really broke out this season, and would have to be involved in a Headley to PIT deal. He would be a solid addition to an already deep system, providing competition for Cory Spangenberg. A concern is a 27SB to 16CS ratio. It seems as if he has average, speed, and power!

RHP Jameson Taillon, PIT:

The 20-year old right hander is the #11 overall prospect in baseball, it is unlikely he is dealt. He has had similar numbers to Lee, and Cole. 4.27 ERA, 8 k/9, 3.37 k/bb. He can touch 99 on the gun.

I am also hearing interest from PHI and NYY, who are unlikely to make the deal, but twitter is filled with "Yankees should get Headley".

Huston Street: CL
Likelihood to move: 20%
Top Suitor: St. Louis
1-10 Rating of value: 5
Age: 28
Under Control Until: 2013
Stats: 2-0 0.95 ERA 17 SV
Our Heath Bell replacement has been one of the best closers in baseball, if not the best. He made the all-star team, and actually is discussing an extension with San Diego, which could keep him off the market. We could also deal guys like Gregerson and Thatcher. The Mets have a bunch of top guys, and then it drops off. I could see St. Louis trading RHP Joe Kelly and 3B Zach Cox for a reliever. Gregerson and Thatcher are also younger, cheaper, and more controllable. 

Nick Hundley: C
Likelihood to move: 50%
Top Suitor: Cincinnati Reds
1-10 Rating of value: 2
Age: 28
Under Control Until: 2016
Stats: .166 3HR Great Defense

Nick signed a contract extension in March, but fell off a cliff after a breakout campaign in 2011 hitting .288 with 11HR. He is in AAA at the moment and hurt. The Mets have nobody at catcher. If Hundley gets healthy maybe we get SS Wilmer Flores, a former top prospect, who has limited value and profiles as a utility guy. We would be looking to dump his contract with Grandal being amazing in MLB.

Chris Denorfia
Likelihood to move: 75%
Top Suitor: Oakland A's
1-10 Rating of value: 7
Age: 32
Under Control Until: 2014
Stats: 3HR .298 .356 8SB Good Defense
He reportedly drew more interest than Carlos Quentin. The Reds could use and OF and I could see SS Didi Gregorius being of interest.

I could see: Headley for Parker, Peacock, Taylor; Gregerson and Thatcher for Kelly and Cox; Hundley for Wilmer Flores; and Denorfia for Gregorius. Fair enough?

Sunday, July 22, 2012

Carlos Quentin Extended

The new ownership found a way to prove thenselves, signing OF Carlos Quentin to a 3-year 27 milllion dollar extension. There even incentives! The old Padres brass did not do incentives.
Quentin was set to become a free agent, but this deal keeps him in town. The right handed hitter is hitting .273 with 9HR in 139 at bats, this move will certainly be worth it for the two years barring injury, but in the third year he will be declining. I like this deal a lot but might not later on. Next Move: Extend Street for two years fourteeen million.

The deal also has a full no trade clause, I think we will regret
this later, but now it is a great move.

Friday, July 20, 2012

Crazy Trade Idea

Now this would be my fantasy, but what if........

The Padres sent 3B Chase Headley, OF Chris Denorfia, RHP Anthony Bass and 1B prospect Nate Frieman to the Diamondbacks for OF Justin Upton and SS Stephen Drew.

This deal would qualify as a megablockbuster as both teams improve drastically. As much as t doesn't make any sense, it makes all the sense in the world for both sides. Upton and Drew are both expendable with Bloomquist and Parra in the wings, and Headley, Denorfia, and Bass are expendable with Gyorko, Venable, Kelly, Erlin. Josh Byrnes grew Drew and Upton and extended both, KT grew Bass and Headley.

For the Diamondbacks, Chase Headley goes from PETCO and into "Chase" Field, there is even a pun for Mark Grace to overuse! Denorfia is the perfect 4th OF who could help ease the burden of losing Upton. Bass would be a very solid back of the rotation arm who would just help out for next year. Frieman is blocked in SD with about 5 other similar guys.

For San Diego, Drew takes over SS, Gyorko 3B, Amarista 2B, Forsythe UTIL. Grandal is a stud behind the plate and Alonso plays a perfect 1B. The OF is Upton, Maybin, Quentin, Venable. Jesus Guzman, Nick Hundley, Everth Cabrera round out the bench. Luebke, Richard, Volquez, Stauffer, Kelly, Erlin in the rotation? Nice team.

Chase Headley, 28 has 10 HR and is playing a great defensive 3B
as well as hitting 80% of his HR away from PETCO, he would be hitting .290 with 16HR if he played only on the road, and Chase Field is a hitters park.

Frieman, 25 is hitting .283 with 20HR in the pitcher friendly confines of the Texas league. The lefty batter was drafted out of Duke (Which made me sad when I found out) in the 8th round in 2009. He doesn't appear to have a future with San Diego.

Bass, 24, pitched to a 3.01 ERA in the minors while not being looked at as a prospect, he proved doubters wrong by pitching to a 3.60 ERA in his first 2 seasons, he was off to a fantastic start with SD earlier but went downhill while suffering from shoulder problems.

Denorfia, 32 was the recipient of the Kevin Correa award, this year it is a close race between Jesus Guzman and Jason Marquis. "Deno" has hit around .285 since signing a minor league contract with San Diego in 2009. I remember scoffing at the signing and boy was I wrong! The Bristol product has hit 8HR in 514 ABs over the last two seasons.

Drew, 29, was the top choice in the 2002 draft, but to save money, the Padres went with RHP/SS Matt Bush. Bush's latest episode involves a DUI/Hit and Run incident where while exiting the scene ran over the motor cyclist he hit's head. He survived and Bush is in jail with a bail over 1+ million dollars. He never made MLB. Drew has had a productive AZ career before getting hurt to start 2012. Drew needs a change of scenery, and the DBacks probably toss in some cash for Drew's salary.

Upton, 24!!!!!!, already has 98 home runs and an average around .280 Upton makes a bit of money but NEW OWNERSHIP would love to prove themselves, imagine how much Justin Upton would boost sales! I don't even live within 3,000 miles of PETCO bor have any money and would buy season tickets! Upton has been struggling this season but could really improve this club, this could potentially create a 2008 Rockies esque run.

On an off note Matt Holliday didn't touch home plate!

Take a look at a could be 2013 Padres:

CF Cameron Maybin
SS Stephen Drew
RF Justin Upton
LF Carlos Quentin
1B Yonder Alonso
3B Jedd Gyorko
C Yasami Grandal
2B Alexi Amarista

LHP Cory Luebke
RHP Tim Stauffer
LHP Clayton Richard
RHP Edison Volquez
RHP Andrew Cashner

CL Huston Street
SU Luke Gregerson
SU Brad Brach
MR Nick Vincent
MR Miles Mikolas
LS Joe Thatcher
LR Jorge Reyes

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

International FA signing day!

July 2nd was the MLB International signing day, where players are first allowed to be released into the free agent pool. Each team was given a 2.9 million dollar spending cap. The Padres brought in 3B Carlos Belèn for a 1,000,000$ deal. Last season we brought in C Jose Ruiz for a 1,100,000$ deal. Jose Ruiz is hitting .141 in the GSL for San Diego. He has walked once and struck out 20 times in 80 PA's. Not so good. Belen I hope will be better. He cannot play with the organization until he 2013. 3B Duanel Jones signed a deal worth 900,000$ in 2010. He had failed a drug test so we signed him at a discount, later in the year they signed OF Edwin Moreno, who also failed a drug test and was signed for a discounted rate of 500,000$. In 2009 we signed OF Yoan Alcantara who happened to be using a false identity. The sad thing is the best prospect in baseball, Jurickson Profar was signed on the sam e day for an undisclosed amount. In 2008 they also signed Adys Portillo and Luis Dorodomo to large deals, Corey Adamson and Alvaro Aristy were also signed. In 2007 they signed Rymer Liriano, Jonathan Galvez, and Edison Rincon to 6 figure deals. Here is a nice chart:
False Identities: 16.7%
Outfielders: 50%
Sucess Rate*:67%
Sucess Rate among 1+ M bonuses: 67%
1+ M bonuses: 41.7%
Top 30 Padre Prospect: 50%
Top 100 MLB Prospect: 6.7%
Reached MLB**: 0%
Reached AAA: 0%
Reached AA: 25%
Reached A+: 56%
Reached A: 75%
Reached A-: 75%
Reached AZL: 75%
Reached DSL: 91%
Busted***: 6%
Bust?****: 41.7%
PlayerPosition Age Year Bonus Production Notes
Carlos Belèn 3B 16 2012 1,000,000 N/A May not start playing with organization until 2013 due to age
Jose Ruiz C 17 2011 1,100,000 DSL: .141 avg 0HR .167 OBP Ouch! He has stunk it up!
Duenel Jones 3B/OF 18 2010 900,000 Career in minors GSL-A: .231 11 HR 150k .317 OBP He has been decent.
Edwin Moreno OF 18 2010 500,000 GSL (2011): .244 7 HR .301 OBP Very raw, off to a slow start in AZL
Yoan Alcantara OF 22 2009 135,000 Career in minors: .294 avg .341 obp, 19 HR, 22 SB. Busted for false identity, he would have been 19. His name is Yeison Asencio. Would have been the a top 10 prospect.
Adys Portillo SP 20 2008 2,000,000 A (2012): 5-5 1.76 ERA 71 k in 76 IP Highest SD bonus ever. Top 10 Padre prospect.
Luis_Domoromo OF 20 2008 1,250,000 [1] He has not had a good year and I expected more from him. He was supposed to be the sleeper.
Corey Adamson OF 20 2008 500,000 Career in minors: .216 avg 18 SB 20 CS 3 HR in 600+ AB. He has not performed well at all. The Australian has not lived up to his hype.
Alvaro Aristy SS 22 2008 1,000,000 .169/.304/.204 slash in minors Busted for false identity, complete bust. Link for an article. Crazy scheme. Converted to RP.
Rymer Liriano OF 21 2007 300,000 2011 A: 12HR 65SB .319 avg

2012 A-AA: .298 5HR 22SB
Best signing by far, top 50 prospect in MLB. Top 3 Padres prospect. Just promoted to AA. One of my favorites.
Jonathan Galvez 2B 21 2007 750,000 2012 (AA): .333 avg 1HR 7SB 104AB Has been solid and is on the 40-man, he could be up by 2014. Utility man floor. power+speed+obp
Edison Rincon 3B 21 2007 300,000 Career in minors:
.277/.353/.411 slash.
Bad defense, raw, bat has been stalled with bad year in AA.
[1] Luis Domoromo stats
2009 17 Padres DOSL FRk 68 286 230 46 55 2 7 1 26 8 3 45 49 .239 .377 .322 .698 74 5 7 2 2 2
2010 18 Eugene NORW A- 31 121 113 12 31 5 0 1 8 0 0 6 23 .274 .314 .345 .659 39 8 1 0 1 1
2011 19 Fort Wayne MIDW A 112 486 435 66 123 20 3 9 68 7 7 36 83 .283 .335 .405 .740 176 14 4 0 11 1
2012 20 Lake Elsinore CALL A+ 63 255 238 24 49 8 1 2 18 7 2 12 57 .206 .247 .273 .520 65 2 2 0 3 0
4 Seasons 274 1148 1016 148 258 35 11 13 120 22 12 99 212 .254 .324 .348 .672 354 29 14 2 17 4
*Sucess Rate=have they been moderatley sucessful.
**None of these players have debutted in MLB since they are not ready yet.
***I would not expect these players in MLB at all ever.
****They could potentially bust.
Looking at all this data, we have been pretty sucessful with about 50% of our signees looking like solid prospects. Rymer Liriano is for sure the best of the bunch, who knows with Belen.
Here is a nice profile on Belèn for you:

Belèn is a power hitting 3B out of the Dominican Republic. He was the number 8 international prospect out of the world. Albert Pujols started out as a 3B, I wonder...

-The Padres signed RHP Corey Kimber who was drafted in the 25th round to a 120k deal, 20k over slot.

-We also signed RHP's Andrew Lockett (4th) and Walker Weikel (1A) to over slot deals.

-The Padres have one four games in a row and are 13 GB for the wild card. Remember there are two! Who knows if we can get some SP back?

-Huston Street was selected to the all star game.

-Jeremy Hermida is rehabbing in AZL.

-Cole Hamels and Zach Greinke to be traded? Pirates interested?? I would not have expected this.

-Latos/Volquez match up tomorrow! Should be fun, the fact is Volquez alone has out performed Latos, and Grandal and Alonso have just been bonuses! We came out well in that deal!

Padres Draft Review

I am sorry for this long time it took me to get back into the posting business, I just got out of school so I will be posting a lot more.

Before I go in depth with each individual pick, I will have to explain the new drafting rules. Each team gets a specific draft salary cap. Each pick is given a specific slot value, such as pick #7 is given a value of 3 million dollars. The addition of all these values for rounds 1-10 are the team's cap. If a team fails to sign a player, then they lose the allotted money given to sign that pick for their CAP. This is why pitchers Mark Appel, Clate Schmidt, and Cody Poteet fell so low. Appel was projected at #1 and fell to #8, Poteet and Schmidt were projected top 50 at least, and fell to 800-1200. If a team fails to sign a pick in rounds 1-3, they receive a compensation pick for not signing the player. The pick is one pick after the original pick. There are punishments for going over cap on picks, including after 5% over, you get a 75% tax on every dollar after that. You could also lose future picks. After round ten, you can sign any pick for 100,000 for each pick. If you go over, it is subtracted from your CAP. Just so you feel better about us not signing our picks, Chad MacDonald, our scouting director, said "I'd be shocked if we don’t have the top ten done sooner than later."

I will review others later.

Here is a review of the Padres first few picks:

#1.7-LHP Max Fried
Signed: YES
Player Comparison: Clayton Kershaw
Slot Value: 3,000,000$
Signed For: 3,000,000$
The young pitcher out of Harvard-Westlake High School in California, has drawn comparison's to Clayton Kershaw, C.J. Wilson, Cole Hamels, and Barry Zito. If those Kershaw comparisons are close, I would be ecstatic with this pick. Now we did pass up on RHP Mark Appel, who was projected to go #1. Before you go pull the "We only draft/sign/trade for what we can afford" card, the new rules basically said that we probably couldn't sign him with the 3 million slot bonus, which would have been a wasted pick. Scott Boras was his agent and it was rumored that the Astros, who picked first overall asked Boras would take a 7 million dollar when slot for #1 was 7.2 million and Appel declined. Now back to Fried. Some scouts viewed him as the top pitcher in the draft over college pitchers Kyle Zimmer, Kevin Gausman, and Mark Appel. He throws 90-93 with occasionally getting it up to 95. His curveball has been touted as the best in the draft by many. The 18 year old athlete has yet to sign. This was a solid pick here, and is an excellent addition to an already great farm system. Here is some video on the young southpaw:

UPDATE: He signed for slot.
UPDATE #2: He made his pro debut pitching a scoreless yet interesting inning.

#S1.33 RHP Zach Eflin
Signed: YES
Player Comparison: Jordan Zimmermann
Slot Value: 1,525,000$
Signed For: 1,200,000$
The prep out of Hagerty High School was battling Triceps Tendinitis through out most of April, which killed his draft stock, dropping him down to around 20-35. We were lucky to snag him at #33, I am a big fan of the young righty, who has drawn comparisons to RHP Jordan Zimmermann. Eflin sits in the low 90's and hit 96 on the gun this spring. The 6 foot 5 right hander still has room to fill out, and potentially gain velocity. He gained a whopping 5 MPH on his fastball just last season. The point is, the kid still could improve of a huge base. He shouldn't be too hard to sign, but he still hasn't signed yet, which worries me. In case you're wondering where we got this pick, we got it because we let Heath Bell go into free agency. We also got a 2nd rounder with Bell leaving.

UPDATE: He signed for below slot.

#S1.44 OF Travis Jankowski
Signed: YES
Player Comparison: Cam Maybin
Slot Value: 1,160,000$
Signed for: 975,000$

The young Stony Brook OF was part of a surprise team that he lead to the college world series tournament. They were eliminated on June 17th to Florida State. Expect him to sign for under slot after the college world series. The speedy outfielder boasts a quick bat and will likely hit for a lot of double and triples, and fits in like Cory Spangenberg fit in. The power could develop over time. I wonder if we are looking at the next Mike Trout? Jankowski was an excellent selection here, and hopefully can get started in Eugene soon. I think this pick could be my favorite pick for the Padres this whole draft.
UPDATE: Travis has signed for below slot.

UPDATE #2:He has been promoted to A-Fort Wayne