Monday, June 27, 2011

Trades that fell through: #10

I considered multiple trades in this spot, including a 3-team mega blockbuster that would have sent Adrian Gonzalez, Clay Bucholez, Daniel Bard, and Heath Bell to the Mariners and Felix Hernandez to the Red Sox. The Padres would have received Carlos Truifinel and Brandon Morrow. Morrow is good but not as good as any of the 5 above. The trade I did end up choosing was:

In 2009 the Padres were scuffling and dealt their ace Jake Peavy to the Chicago White Sox in exchange for LHP Clayton Richard and prospects. The deal that didn't go through was a blockbuster. Adrian Gonzalez and Heath Bell would be sent to the Los Angeles Dodgers in exchange for five players. James Loney, Ivan Dejesus Jr., Russel Martin, James McDonald, and Blake DeWitt. 

This deal could have turned out to be one of the better Padres deals, or possibly the worst padres trade ever. Martin was considered a star catcher with speed, power, and a pure bat. .300 26 HR 30 SB was not out of the question. He'd have been our replacement Gonzalez. He flopped with LA from then and on. A trade may have woken him up like becoming a Yankee did.

James Loney was considered the best defensive 1B in the minors, and possibly being a .300 20 HR bat at first. Over the last 1 and a half years he has been essentially replacement level. He has been better than Padres 1B's but not even close to Gonzalez. Jesus Guzman, who has about 25 at bats, has 1/4 of the HR that Loney has. Loney has 281 at bats.

James McDonald was expected to be what he turned out to be...in Pittsburgh. Essentially he was supposed to be like Matt Garza, a flamethrower with lots of K's and a good ERA. He flopped in LA so they packaged him with Andrew Lambo and traded them for Octavio Dotel. Dotel pitched a half a month with them, before being shipped to Colorado for a PTBNL. McDonald and Kevin Correia lead Pittsburgh's rotation.

Ivan Dejesus Jr. was a top prospect, like Jose Ingleas, who could play defense. He got hurt and is toiling away at AAA Albuquerque (I love spell check). Another flop.

Blake DeWitt only provided two positive things to any team in MLB, both were too LA. He had a fantastic rookie year, on a full season's pace he would have hit 15-18 HR and around .270. LA traded him to Chicago for LHP Ted Lilly and SS Ryan Theriot. Theriot was then traded for Blake Hawkensworth. LA ended up with a solid lefty and a young pitcher with upside.

In a summary, this would have been a poor trade if all of these players flopped like they did in LA, but maybe if they were traded, it would keep them out of their slumps.

Saturday, June 25, 2011

Josh Spence

Josh is the second player to reach the majors from the 2010 draft, and the first Padre. The Australian southpaw made his MLB debut last night striking out MLB star Jason Heyward (above). Josh pitched at ASU for 2 years. In his first year  he broke out going 10-1 with a 2.27 ERA as a starter, he was then drafted by the Angels in the 4th round in 2009. He declined to sign. The next year he missed the whole year due to elbow problems, but the Padres saw something, we drafted him in the ninth round and signed him for 100k. I really liked him and Jedd Gyorko coming out of the draft and now look at them. He raced through our system posting a 3.00 ERA in 10 games (5 starts) throughout Eugene, Lake Elsinore, and Fort Wayne. This year he posted a 1.71 ERA with a minor league career 10.6 k/9 ratio. He was called up after Cory Luebke was moved to the starting rotation. He could return to starting but he looks to have an Arthur Rhodes/Darren Oliver ceiling.

Sunday, June 19, 2011

Ryan Ludwick

Now he may be the second biggest bat on the market! We are ten games out so let's sell!

What teams could use Ludwick:

Indians
Phillies
Braves
Padres
Reds
Mariners

What are we looking for? SS, C, 2B

What teams would give:

Indians

I love Jason Kipnis's bat and defense a second and would give Ludwick and Hudson for Kipnis. It seems a little unlikely though.

Phillies

I found a creative way to balance the salary and get a big player. Bell(7mil), Ludwick(6mil), and Venable for Raul Ibanez (one year bad contract 13 mil) and Domonic Brown (amazing player). The salary is even and SD gets a mega player (Brown) and Philly gets rid of Ibanez and gets the best closer.

Braves

Pairing Bell and Ludwick makes it easier to get a MLB-ready top prospect. I like Teheran and Randall Delgado, though Teheran is likely untouchable. Bell and Ludwick for Delgado and JJ Hoover.

Padres

We can keep him and get a comp. pick next year! 55th overall or such. We could get another Michael Kelly and 1/2 year or Ludwick!

Reds

I'd like this deal the most, or the Brown deal. Ryan Ludwick for Chris Heisy. It would allow us to deal Bell to the Rangers for Profar. Hiesy would be a perfect 2-hole guy and could help now!

Mariners

San Diego could probably pull off a decent prospect for Ludwick, and I like Nick Franklin, but I covet Micheal Pineada so here is the trade:

Mike Adams, Ryan Ludwick, Dustin Mosely, Aaron Harang and Cash for Michael Pineda and the best prospect available not named Dustin Ackley.

Then we slide Pineda into the rotation, trade Bell for Profar, sign the recently released Scott Kazmir to a 2-year deal with options to fill the 5-spot in the rotation, and put Kyle Blanks in LF for Ludwick. Fill Adams, Bell, and Qualls spots like this:

CL Luke Gregerson
SU Ernesto Frieri
SU Evan Scribner
MI Sam Deduno
MI Pat Neshek
LR Wade LeBlanc
LS Cory Luebke

1. CF Cameron Maybin
2. SS Jason Bartlett
3. 3B Chase Headley
4. LF Kyle Blanks
5. 1B Anthony Rizzo
6. RF Chris Denorfia
7. C Nick Hundley
8. 2B Orlando Hudson
9. Pitcher

SP1 Mat Latos
SP2 Michael Pineda
SP3 Tim Stauffer
SP4 Scott Kazmir
SP5 Clayton Richard

Bench

Aaron Cunningham
Alberto Gonzalez
Rob Johnson
Kyle Phillips
Will Venable

Obviously I like this deal the most because we get Profar and Pineda.

The system has Rizzo, Profar, Austin, Spangenberg, Pineda, Jace Peterson, Hedges, Kelly, Ross, Tate, Fuentes, Castro, other Kelly, Gyorko, and Darnell. That is a top 5 system.

Saturday, June 11, 2011

Padres sign Cory Spangenberg

The Padres have agreed to terms with 2B Cory Spangenberg on a deal that includes a 1.68 million dollar signing bonus. Spangenberg is reportedly headed to Arizona for a couple of weeks untill the Emeralds season starts. This Jucco 2B has potential to hit 20 HR .320 and have 40-50 steals. I love his bat and he will stick at second. He looks like he will be a great leadoff guy nd worth the pick. Now we need to sign Joe Ross and Micheal Kelly.

Wednesday, June 8, 2011

Anthony Rizzo

The Padres have called up uber-prospect Anthony Rizzo to play first and Brad Hawpe will move over to right for now. Rizzo hit .365 with 16 homers in AAA Tucson and plays great defense. He has lofty expectations but is only 20 so do not be harsh if he doesn't produce. He had a .444 OBP so he is patient, he has a little bit of speed and reminds me of Adrian in so many ways. This will be the first benefit of the Adrian trade and could have the impact on San Diego as Posey on the Giants last year and could be a bigger move theoretically than aquiring Prince Fielder! We could be seeing the 2011 rookie of the year coming up and a future all-star in the making. I say he doesn't put up MVP numbers but still ends up as our best player. I like the trade for both teams looking back on it as A-gon is looking like the possible AL MVP!
Look at this lineup:
  1. CF Cameron Maybin
  2. SS Jason Bartlett
  3. 1B Anthony Rizzo
  4. LF Ryan Ludwick
  5. RF Brad Hawpe
  6. 3B Chase Headley
  7. C Nick Hundley
  8. 2B Orlando Hudson
  9. pitcher
Here are my predictions for Rizzo:
.279 15  HR .360 OBP 70 RBI


Rizzomania!

Tuesday, June 7, 2011

Cory Spangenberg and the draft review!

Yesterday the Padres drafted five players and today many more. Here is the recap from rounds 1-6!

#10
Cory Spangenberg



 This kid can run. He can hit. Here is what to expect:
A David Eckstien attitude.
Luis Durango speed.
Rickie Weeks defense.
Robinson Cano bat. (Little less, best comparison I could find)

That is an awesome looking player! Cory was #9 on their board and they were ecstatic that he was available. He seemed like a slight overpay but it could pay off.

#25
Joe Ross

Yes he is Tyson Ross's little brother. Ross throws 95 mph and he's 18. He has a solid curve and can end up being a solid 2 or 3. He does have potential to be as good as Matt Cain! He has room to grow and should be up in 4-5 years!

#48
Micheal Kelly
I predicted he'd be a Padre! (check out my mock drafts) We drafted this 18-year old flame thrower and he still has room to grow a 6'5''. He reminds me of Zach Greinke in terms of stuff, movement, and finesse. I like his delivery and mound presence.


#54
Brett Austin
#1 He  was drafted out of the high school I was going to go to, but decided against! #2 He has a heavenly bat. Like Mike Napoli. below average defense and huge power.

#58
Jace Peterson


He is a shortstop with some power. I can't find much on him but he played football and baseball. Yes I put on the right video, Peterson is a right end. I see him and Spangenberg as the future double play combo!


#82
Austin Hedges

He looks like a better version of Yadier Molina. He is the opposite of Austin in every way. He has gold glove defense, average bat, San Diego area high school, tough sign. He will cost a lot and that is why he fell. I like him as the catcher of the future with Austin moving to RF.

Let's skip a few picks to round 6:

#203
Kyle Gaedele
He is the great nephew of Eddie Gaedel, the infamous midget who pinch-hit for the White Sox as a publicity stunt! While he probably won't have a career 1.000 OBP like his great uncle (1 AB 1 walk), he has tremendous power an reminds me of Carlos Quentin. He has average at best defense and a really big bat! I see him in LF or RF in the future.







Eddie Gaedell
My conclusion is the Eugene Emeralds will have a really good year with a core like this:

SP1 Joe Ross
SP2 Micheal Kelly
SP3 Matt Andriese
SP4 Mark Pope
SP5 ?

CL Greg Gonzalez

  1. 2B Corey Spangenberg
  2. SS Jace Peterson
  3. DH Brett Austin
  4. RF Kyle Gaedele
  5. ?
  6. ?
  7. C Austin Hedges
  8. ?
  9. ?
What is your take on these picks?

Friday, June 3, 2011

What the grades mean.

Here is my grading scale for prospects 1-25. I choose a grade and it show what I think they will become.
A+
Surely going top be the best player in the game.

A
Going to be a star.

A-
Probably going to be a star

B+
A great player. Maybe a star.

B
A chance to be a star, probably will be an average player.

B-
Has potential, will probably be a solid player.

C+
Might never make it, has potential, Above-average at best.

C
Average at best likely a middle reliever or a bench player.

C-
50-50 percent chance they make it. If they do probably a pen arm or bench player.

D-F
Not likley to make it to MLB, not going to be a starter. Not worth much.

Top 30 prospects: #24

Evan Scribner


Evan was aquired in a deal that sent 1B Tony Clark to the Diamondbacks in 2008. The deal is already paying divedends for San Diego. Evan owns a career 2.75 minor league ERA. He had 55 saves and an 11/k per 9 inning ratio. This year Scribner has a 2.45 ERA for San Diego in 11 innings and 6 games. He looks like he could be a late inning arm in the pen, but he will most likely become another Padres middle reliver who could close for another team. Like Ryan Webb and the Marlins. I am doing gradesfor the top 25.

Grade: B-

Thursday, June 2, 2011

Top prospects: #25

Zach Herr

Zach is up here because of A. Trevor Hoffman's compliment to his curveball and B. His stellar numbers for the last 2 years. He has a career 3.84 ERA and 171 career K's in 176 innings. He looks like another one of many pen arms soon to come out of our farm. He has a cieling of Brian Fuentes and could easily become Will Ohman 2.0, I see this kid in San Diego in under 2 years.

Grade: C-

Wednesday, June 1, 2011

Daisuke Matsuzaka

Japanese righty Daisuke Matsuzaka is slated to have Tommy John Surgery, and miss the rest of his contract. He was worth 45.6 million dollars according to Fangraphs system (1 WAR=5 million dollars). He cost the Red Sox 153 million dollars (posting fee-101 million salary-52 million). Doing the math, the Sox lost 108.4 million dollars on this investment! In comparison, The Padres supposedly made 38 million dollars, tops in MLB last year according to Forbes Magazine! Matsuzaka blames the Red Sox training programs, not his program in Japan. In his 5 years in Boston he owns 49 wins and a decent 4.25 ERA in 5 years. Led by a 2008 campaign where in 29 starts he had a 2.90 ERA and went 18-3!  Daisuke has pocketed 33.8 million dollars so far in his career.

Top 30 prospects: #26

Logan Forsythe

           Forsythe is already with the club, but some intresting points about Logan, a second round draft pick, include he was originally a third baseman! Forsythe was in the minors with 3B James Darnell, and Chase Headley was on the big league club, so they moved him to second. His bat profiles better at second, and he played better defense. Forsythe beat Darnell to the bigs due too two injuries to Orlando Hudson. He is hitting .188 but has played solid defensive ball. He looks like a high OBP, good defense, few steals, average power at best, average to above average player. He will not a star but has the potetial to be a very solid player. Forsythe is almost guaranteed to be a regular at one point in his career though. I like his defense and see him as our future 2B and 2-hole hitter!

Hint:

This southpaw profiles as another reliever. He has a very good curveball.